Brady Hoke has been named Rich Rodriguez’s replacement.  As previously stated, I hope he is wildly successful at Michigan. I mean that, from the bottom of my heart.

At the same time, I have never seen such a “let’s-run-down-the-list-until-someone-finally-agrees-to be-our-coach” search, in my life.  Regardless of what statement is made to the media, Hoke was not Michigan’s first choice.  He was not Michigan’s second or third choice either.

He is, undeniably, an under qualified candidate who got the job specifically because of how poorly executed the coaching search was.  I’m not saying that to be mean, it doesn’t mean he can’t succeed, and it doesn’t  mean I don’t want him to succeed.  It’s just the facts.  And considering the destruction of this year’s recruiting class, the likelihood of players transferring, the implementation of a new system, and all the other transitional issues that will now need to be overcome, I can’t help but reiterate this statement:

Once David Brandon waited until after the bowl game to make his decision, it had to be Harbaugh or Rodriguez.

As an athletic director in this specific, delicate situation, you have to make the choice that either puts the odds of winning in our favor or unites the fan base for the future so that we don’t have to deal with this nonsense anymore.  If one of those options becomes unavailable, you have to accomplish the other.  Brady Hoke does not unite the fan base.  If there was any possibility that a coach who didn’t unite the fans would ultimately be chosen (meaning a deal was not already in place), then the primary concern should have immediately shifted to “putting the odds of winning in Michigan’s favor.”  I fear by hiring Hoke, who I’m sure is a smart guy and a good coach, neither of our ONLY two goals were accomplished.

We’re in a bad situation at Michigan right now, but as I’ve stated a thousand times, there isn’t, and never was, a quick fix.  It doesn’t matter how the bowl game ended.  It doesn’t matter how the OSU game ended.   If there was even a slight possibility that Michigan would be unable to get a coach who would unite the fans (Harbaugh), then the question that should have determined everything had to be “Which coach gives us the best chance to win.”  Now, Brady Hoke may come in and win like there is no tomorrow, but based on actual current evidence, there is absolutely no argument to support the idea that he has better odds of doing so than Rich Rodriguez would have had if given his fourth year.  And sadly, there is a lot of evidence to support the idea that the odds are stacked against him much more so than they would have been against Rodriguez.

You have my full support Coach Hoke.  I just wish you were coming in under better circumstances.

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The night has fallen on Rich Rodriguez.

Now former Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez.

I cannot help but think that the bowl game truly was the “decision-maker”, which is an idea that makes me question everything about what has become of things.  Some programs sway in the winds of emotional highs and lows, allowing said emotions to dictate their course.  Other programs do not.

The same defense that was awful during the season ended up playing awful in the Gator Bowl.  This somehow came as a shocker to everyone, and the camel’s back was broken when they gave up 52 points to Mississippi State.  The 2010 Michigan defense giving up 52 points?  Inconceivable, I guess, that one month of practice didn’t turn them into the Baltimore Ravens.

I’m starting to believe it was all flawed thinking on my part.  Either that or a heightened sense of realism.  You see, when we hired Rich Rodriguez following the 2007 season, I thought we were all in agreement.  The agreement was, “We just lost a ton of players.  We are going to be down for the next few years regardless.  Now is the perfect time to modernize our program.  Let’s bring in a new guy, with a cutting edge system, and give him the time to implement it so we stop winning 9 games every year and start competing with the programs that have already done this and are winning national championships.  Sure we’ll have to suffer some losses to teams we normally wouldn’t lose to, but in the end it will be worth it.”

That’s what I thought.  And I was wrong.

We brought Rich Rodriguez in to win big immediately, at least in football time.  We didn’t bring him in to implement his system.  We didn’t bring him in as an investment for the future.  We didn’t bring him in to “ultimately” turn our program into Auburn or Oregon.  We brought him in to win immediately.  And that being the case, he was the wrong hire.  With that unrealistic mindset, and with the way things were following 2007, just about any coach would have been.

You can’t bring in a coach you know full well is going to change everything and expect him to win immediately.  You can’t bring in a coach you know full well is going to change everything and expect him to win big in two or three years.  But we did.  We absolutely did.  It is a mark on the University to ask a man to change everything and not give him the time to do it.  You can’t have your cake and eat it too, a lesson I fear we are destined to learn all too well.

Sadly, everything that has happened over the last three years is worthless.  That isn’t to say that there weren’t fun times or exciting moments or wonderful players working hard, just that those things won’t lead to anything.  We lost to MSU for three years in a row for no reason.  We lost to OSU for three more years in a row…for no reason.  I took solace in those losses knowing how young we were and that when the time came we would be paid back with benefits, but I was wrong.  We sold.  We sold the stock at loss because we refused to wait out the dip.

But for those who hate the man Rich Rodriguez, congratulations.  You got what you wanted.  He is no longer the coach of Michigan.  Regardless of all the negative aspects another transition will lead to and the nullifying effects this decision has had on the past three years, you won.  The man is gone.

The hardest part for me is that I cannot accept the idea that our team will be more successful next year under a new coach than it would have been under Rich Rodriguez.  Whoever the new person is, he is going to face numerous issues that would not have existed if we’d stayed the course.  Players are going to leave.  Recruiting is going to be affected negatively.  The growing pains of new systems will be everywhere.  We’ve chosen to dig the hole deeper in order to help us get to the top of the mountain, and while it could pay off, I can’t imagine that it is a more efficient means of return than simply allowing a bunch of 19 years old to become 22 year olds.

Don’t get me wrong.  Our new coach might win next year.  I hope he does.  Honestly, if it wasn’t for all the transitional shit we are going to go through I’d expect him to win.  The Big Ten is a different beast next year.  The good teams from 2010 lose experience, and we gain it.  It’s why I felt next year should have been the measuring stick of Rodriguez’s ability.  The 2011 Michigan team should have won 9 regular season games based on who was returning and who they play.  I believe the only thing that could have stopped that from happening is what is happening right now.

Either way, the same people who have hated Rodriguez from day one have had their wishes granted.  They are now in a situation where they can indefinitely use logical fallacies to defend their position as correct.  New coach comes in and fails, “It’s because Rodriguez ruined us.”  New coach comes in and succeeds, “See, I told you once we got rid of him!”  But these people aren’t handling the situation fairly and they know it.  They’ll get their kicks out of what they’re saying, but deep down know they’re misrepresenting the information.  I suppose I should expect that by now, having seen how things played out.

I sound bitter, but I’m really not.  I’m disappointed, sure, that the struggles of 2008-2010 have been in vain and we are now in a similar position to that which we were in three years ago, but I’m not bitter.  I still love Michigan, I still want to see us succeed, and those two statements will remain true regardless of our coach.

But I can’t help wonder what if.  What if we allowed Rich Rodriguez to have more than two full recruiting classes in his efforts to change a centuries old program?  What if we hadn’t caved to the unhappy media/unhappy fan pressures and allowed them to dictate our course?  Would we have been better off?  We will never know.

For his sake and our program’s, I do hope Dave Brandon has some magic up his sleeve.  The best argument for hiring a new coach right now is to unite the fan base.  That’s all well and good, assuming you hire a coach that does that.  Jim Harbaugh would.  Brady Hoke would not.  Just about any other name I’ve heard mentioned as a serious candidate, would not.  The situation becomes tragic if we fire Rodriguez, thus forcing us to endure all the transitional negatives, and hire a coach that does not bring the fans back together.  If that happens, we’ve essentially destroyed all forms of continuity in the program and not achieved the only goal that made us willing to do that.

In a word, disaster.

And in case you were wondering, yes, this is it for me and this site.  Again, please don’t view me as a bitter individual stomping off because he didn’t get his way.  I love Michigan football and I love writing about it, neither of these facts change based on anything that has happened.  I knew what I was getting into, and I knew it might not pan out.

But you must understand that Michigan football is a niche topic.  More importantly, it is a niche that is already too well-covered.  There are seemingly hundreds of blogs dedicated to Michigan football and many of them do the job far better than I ever could.  If I was just trying to compete with them in that single niche, I couldn’t justify my efforts because I know I couldn’t compete.

No, I blogged because I had a niche within the niche.  I wasn’t just dedicated to Michigan, I was also dedicated to the defense of a mistreated man.  In that sense, I was somewhat unique.  But with Rodriguez fired, I no longer have my own calling card.  I’m just lost in the mix, and I can’t separate myself from that mix.

So I bid you farewell.  I’m not going to check comments, and I don’t know how long the site will remain up, but I would like to say thanks to everyone who interacted with me through the site.  I love talking Michigan football with people — even those I disagree with — and most of you were nothing but kind during my stay.

I wish Michigan’s new staff all the best, and I will cheer for it with all my heart regardless of what happens.  I leave knowing that Rich Rodriguez left this program with a lot of young talent for whoever succeeds him, and I hope that will be enough to trump whatever issues we face during the transition, even though those issues may include that young talent leaving.  Due to this, I will likely add some wins to whatever our total is next year in the hypothetical “what would have been” category of my mind.

So, one last time, here’s to you Coach Rodriguez.  A man treated like shit from day one, who was asked to perform miracles, not given the time to do so, and ultimately turned into a fall man in an attempt to reunite an impatient fan base.

We hardly knew ye, and for that you have my sympathies.

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My sense of writing inspiration is currently in a state of comatose.  The in-between season of late November to early January is tough because the primary “well” from which a writer can “draw water” is made up almost entirely of speculation.  I’ve beat all the dead horses I can find, and continuing to do so will only irritate me.

These are dry times...

We could discuss the bowl game, of course, but even those discussions will likely prove unfulfilling.  Bowls are more difficult to analyze than regular season games  because there is so much damn time for teams to prepare for them.    Sure we can make some educated guesses as to how things might play out, and some of those ideas will probably contain a seed of truth to them, but in the end we still have two teams who have never played each other and have no common opponents.  I’ll read the previews, but I certainly won’t be expecting any clairvoyant predictions to be contained in them.

However, one thing that is absolutely worth talking about as we try to survive the doldrums of post-season, pre-bowl-play is that this, is very bad:

Yes, this is your conference's logo

I know everyone is getting their shots in and I’m a little late to the party, but every person with even the smallest voice needs to speak out against this.  I spend a lot of time talking about “fireable offenses” on this site.  I debate the seriousness of this action or the fairness of that action, in terms of accountability.  Please believe me when I say, the PR people who allowed this to reach the public’s eyes have committed a fireable offense.

First of all, the only entity in the history of sports that ever pulled off powerderish blue without looking like a little bitch is the North Carolina basketball team.  They managed it by finding anyone who dared make fun of their colors and then kicking their asses for multiple decades consecutively.  They also brought guys to their program who could do stuff like this, which automatically makes your colors badass:

But for a conference logo, the color scheme screams WNBA.

The WNBA rocks colors like this. The Big Ten shouldn't.

There’s also the nonsensicalness (yeah, it’s a five syllable word) of the number 1 in the word Big.  For the life of me, I keep staring at the logo hoping it’s one of those 3d pictures with a hidden image.  I’m waiting for the number two to magically jump out and properly represent the now 12 teams in the conference, but instead, I just get a 1.  One.  What does it mean?  B1G?  Seriously?  B1G?  I suppose the G is supposed to somehow represent the zero in 10 right?  Really?  I mean, even if it does…that’s not clever.  That’s the transposed equivalent of putting the “I” in instead of the “1” and making the G a zero.  BI0.  BI0.  Yes, our logo is one step removed from that.

The only thing that could have worsened this debacle, is naming the divisions something that in no way tangibly represents the group contained within.  To my amazement, “Legends” and “Leaders” fits that bill perfectly.  I might understand it if the Legends division contained only Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, and Penn State, and we were only using these division names for football.  But when you label MSU, Northwestern, and Minnesota as legends, while Ohio State and Penn State are just leaders, the disconnect is mind boggling.

What’s that Jim Delany?  That isn’t what you meant when you chose the names?  It doesn’t matter.  That’s the obvious connotation people are going to take from them.  You actually think the general public’s view is going to be based on an explanatory press release and not a common sense evaluation of the definition of the words?   Hearts may have been in the right place when this was decided on, but heads were not.

Perhaps the saddest part of all this, is that other than on the Big Ten Network, no one is going to use these titles conversationally.  I won’t be talking about winning the “Legends division”…ever.  I understand it was an attempt to pay homage to the past, but when you choose two of the most broad/ambiguous titles of all time, there is no natural connection to the past you hope to honor.  It’s like calling the divisions “super” and “neato”.  We kind of understand the concept you’re getting at, but it’s hard to take such words seriously unless a five year old is talking.

Super neato!

So it’s official.  We have the worst logo of all the conferences.  I wish I could have been in the meeting when Jim Delaney and a bunch of yes men decided that a baby chimpanzee was going to design and label our beloved Big Ten, but I wasn’t.  It’s ideas like this that allow me to better understand how the notion of moving the Michigan-Ohio State game from the end of the year actually gained some support among conference elites.

I don’t know how much fan disapproval can truly affect decisions that are already made, but I hope people gripe about this until something happens.  Mgoblog has already sent out a call to action asking fans to create their own designs.  Within a few hours there were multiple submissions that I would prefer to the actual logo.  That doesn’t mean all of these submissions were life-changing works of art, it just means they were better than the word “B1g” on top of “Ten” in a powder blue, serif font.

Shocking, I know.

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You wouldn’t think a one month “freeze of information” concerning the Michigan football program could wreak havoc on a well adjusted individual.  Well, either your initial assumption is wrong, or I’m not well-adjusted.

Yeah, I pace around sometimes. What's your point?

It’s very strange.  I’m not old enough to say I’ve been around Michigan football for 40 years or anything, but I’ve followed it about as closely as one can since I was very young.  I’ve experienced a lot of feelings along the way, the majority of them good, some bad, and a few unsettling.  But for everything I’ve experienced, I can’t find a precedent to guide me through the course we’re walking now.

We’ve had talks of coaching changes before.  Hell, we’ve had actual coaching changes before.  We’ve even had controversy surrounding such things.  But the magnitude of the current controversy, and the fully transparent division amongst the fan base, is something I personally cannot compare to anything in my Michigan football memory bank.

It’s hard to describe the feeling.  Since nothing has actually happened yet the notion of even having a distinct feeling seems strange.  But it’s definitely there.  I can’t fully encapsulate it in a single word, but if I was going to try, I think I’d say apprehensive.  I want to classify my current state of mind as something specific, something black and white.  I’m mad.  I’m glad.  I’m sorry.  I’m sad.  I’m excited.  Instead I just have to sit and worry about what my state is going to be when the million dollar question is finally answered.

It is a cloud hanging over the program.  That isn’t to say that someone is to blame for it or that the cloud was avoidable.  It’s just the way things happened.  It’s there, and no matter what else is going on, Michigan fans are thinking about it.  A lot of people are getting so fed up with the discussions that they are trying to force people to stop talking about it.  That’s not going to happen.  If an employee knows that his evaluation is coming up in a month, and that his future well being is at stake on that date, it won’t matter how many times you tell him to stop worrying about it.  Late at night, when the lights go out, there’s going to be one thought that rises to the top of his mind.

How will the news be delivered, I wonder?

Now you might be thinking, “Yeah, but it’s a personal evaluation of Rich Rodriguez, not these fans!  It has nothing to do with them so they should just shut up!”  But you would be mistaken.  For those who follow Michigan with an undying passion, there is much at stake.  Rich Rodriguez is being evaluated as an individual in early January, but die-hard Michigan fans feel like a personal evaluation of their beliefs is occurring as well.  You see, in a simplified world, Michigan fans fall into two categories:

1. Those who believe the program is on the right track and will therefore meet the expectations they have for it.
2. Those who do not believe the program is on the right track and will therefore not meet the expectations they have for it.

And while fans may like or dislike Rich Rodriguez, it is the evaluation of where they stand on this issue that worries them the most.

When David Brandon ultimately decides the fate of Rich Rodriguez and Michigan football, he will also make an inadvertent declaration about the two “factions” of Michigan fans that exist.  He will either be saying “I agree with those who want Rich Rodriguez back” or “I agree with those who want him gone.”  And while his declaration won’t totally negate the opposing group’s argument, it will crush the hope they had that their belief might actually come to fruition.

Those who want Rich Rodriguez to stay see a bright future under him.  Those who want him gone obviously don’t.  When David Brandon makes his decision, people who disagree with it are either going to have to say, “Well, he has the most insider information so I must have been wrong” or “Dave Brandon was wrong and I’m pissed.”  Either way, the belief that they held so strongly to as the proper direction for this program will die.  If Rodriguez goes, those who wanted to see what his team could do with experience will have to relinquish the thought.  If he stays, those who wanted to see Jim Harbaugh return us to glory will have to find another idea to comfort them.

And this is why the situation is so unique.  There’s no answer that will make everyone, or even the distinguishable majority of people, happy.  Either Dave Brandon says he agrees with one side, or he says he agrees with the other.  From that point, Michigan continues down his chosen path and those who so passionately supported a different path are left out in the cold.  One way or the other, there will be some disunity among the fans.

Some Zax. One north-going, the other south-going no doubt.

This is a problem. In a perfect world it wouldn’t be, but this world is far from perfect.  You can say fans who disagree with it will just accept the decision Dave Brandon makes and fully support their team, but they won’t.  Even though it is unfair and detrimental to the athletes, regardless of the decision Brandon makes, unhappy fans will inevitably resort to “I told you so” type mindsets the second future trouble arises.  And this could prove to be a catastrophe.

We don’t want to have these discussions every year.  We don’t want the national media to only talk about Michigan in terms of its “coaching hot seat.”  Such coverage is bad for the program and hurts it in a variety of ways.  But because of how fine the line is between wanting one course of action(keep Rodriguez) and wanting the other(fire him), and how completely certain each side is that they are right, we are setting ourselves up to be in these exact situations.

If Rodriguez stays, I’ve already heard people saying he needs to meet “these specific requirements” in year four or he is gone again.  This type of thinking obviously leads to a dangerous situation:  Whose bar do we go by?  What if he just misses these specific requirements?  Do we have to go through all this shit again?  Do we have to shuffle around on thin ice every offseason as we worry about whether our coach will be back and if not who will replace him?  And what about Harbaugh?  What if he comes and wins five games in his first year?  Do we start this entire process over with new factions forming and people beginning to look for the next “magical candidate” that will lead us to an incredible year?

Hmm.  An incredible year.  Three words worth a pause.  Unfortunately, we’ve put ourselves in a situation where those three words are the only thing that can unite the fans.  Improvement isn’t enough.  Players working hard isn’t enough.  Possibilities and potential are not enough.  The only way Michigan gets out of its current situation without facing regression and/or fracturing the fan base is by doing the almost impossible:  Going from average to incredible, immediately.

Denard made the jump from average to incredible. I don't know if an entire program can do it as quickly as people want.

And that’s too bad.  It’s unfair to the students and coaches who make up our program.  I know there are those who would say “Screw everyone that gets pissed about Brandon’s decision, we don’t need them.”  But I want them.  I want all Michigan fans, in the big house, supporting our team as it climbs the mountain.  I want a unified fan base, even if the program goes a different direction than I think it should.  I want to see us hate Ohio State again, not the Michigan fans we disagree with.

But I doubt it will happen.  Too many people have put their beliefs, and their opinions about the program, ahead of Michigan football.  We’re past the point of no return, and I fear that if we don’t win big immediately – regardless of what decision is made – we will face the repercussions of our actions in a big way over the next few years.  Constant turmoil over the same idea year after year will destroy a program.   One way or the other, we have to get over it, so that it isn’t the issue that defines us to the nation.

I’m apprehensive.  Can you tell?

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I don’t know how many people who want Rich Rodriguez fired consistently visit this site.  I know that at least a few do, because I receive e-mails from them now and again.  I actually enjoy that, because most of them are civil and most of them are from fans who are concerned.  But to be honest, I couldn’t blame these people if they simply looked at the name of the site and immediately tried to forget of its existence.  I mean, who wants to continually read thoughts that are attempting to undermine their own?

Apparently this guy...

But this particular post is as much for the anti Rich Rod crowd as anyone.  I seriously want to know what you think.  Not all the “Rich Rod ruined our program and here are the details” banter, just some honest analysis of a single question that is ever so pertinent at this time:

“If Harbaugh won’t come, what would you have Michigan do?”

Jim Harbaugh has been built up as a savior in a lot of people’s minds.  The chosen one if you will.  The absurdity of that idea aside, I understand why it exists.  In some ways, he is the direct opposite of Rich Rodriguez, and a lot of fans have developed such a hate for our current coach that they yearn for just that:  His opposite.

I understand the concept.  But in the process of anointing Jim Harbaugh as an infallible savior, a lot of baseless speculation has been given a level of credibility that the facts just don’t support.  For example, it has become a foregone conclusion that:

a:  Michigan desperately wants Harbaugh as its coach.
b:  He is basically the only guy Michigan desperately wants
c:  He is dying to come
d:  The change is inevitable, but certain factors are delaying it.

Don’t get me wrong.  Four out of seven days of the week I believe some of these things to be true.  That’s why I admitted in my previous post that Harbaugh does seem like the favorite in the current horse race for Michigan’s coaching job.  But just because I believe them, or you believe them, doesn’t mean there is legitimate evidence supporting the ideas.  And if we’re just going by the concrete evidence, the fact of the matter is that we have almost none.

This fact gets lost because of people I like to call “Condescending-tone-of-voice-pseudo-rationalists”.  It’s a long name, I’m working on it.  But these are the people that, as a group, manage to create an atmosphere where it feels like there is evidence supporting their claims, when there actually is very little.  They do this by condescendingly saying things like “Cooome onnnn maaan, you’re telling me you can ACTUALLY envision a scenario in which Michigan ISN’T dying to get its hands on Harbaugh?  Give me a break.”  They then list all the factors THEY consider undeniable evidence, e.g. he went to Michigan, he played under Bo, he took Stanford to 11 wins in four years, etc.

"This guy thinks Michigan might not be going after Harbaugh!" Just because they point and laugh doesn't mean they're right.

The strength of these types of arguments is based on the premise of making any idea contrary to them sound foolish.  They are tricky because not only do they sound right due to the false-confidence of those propagating them, but they could also very well be right, and we all know it.  You see, there are lots of things that sound right that we can dismiss upon further investigation.  But when complete information is lacking, the argument that sounds the best, and is a possibility, too often gets mistaken as the most likely or only possibility.

But here’s the problem:  No one with actual inside information has said anything concrete on the issue.  The whole Jim Harbaugh story was developed from “without”, not from “within”.  That doesn’t mean it can’t be true, but it does mean it isn’t absolutely true.  It is within the realm of possibility that Michigan has not contacted Jim Harbaugh.  It is also within the realm of possibility that Jim Harbaugh doesn’t want to come.  There’s no evidence supporting either case either way, so presuming that “this” is a certainty or “that” is a foregone conclusion” is unwise.

And it is this idea that brings me to the anti-Rich-Rodders.  For the sake of wasting time until some actual evidence comes out, let’s assume hypothetically that Jim Harbaugh isn’t coming.  We’ll just say he likes Stanford.  He enjoys the sun.  He gets a kick out of their little tree mascot, whatever.  He just isn’t coming.  I want to know from you, what then?

Yeah, it's a tree with legs but no arms.

Does Rich Rodriguez become your second choice, or do you have someone else specific in mind?  Are you the type that only wants a big name or are you so distraught over the current state of the program that you’re willing to let a less “known” coach come in?  Does it have to be a guy with Michigan roots this time, or are you willing to try someone from outside the bubble?

It just seems that this fiery debate has had boatloads of gasoline poured on it due to the fact that Jim Harbaugh is seemingly the perfect candidate for those who want Rodriguez gone.  He just meets all of their criteria.  Of course the issue would be there either way, but I wonder to what degree it would exist if Harbaugh was taken out of the equation.

I want Rodriguez back, everyone knows that about me.  The whole damn world thinks I’m just “that crazy guy down the street that would drink Rich Rodriguez’s bathwater.”  NOT TRUE BY THE WAY, but I’m getting off point.  I want to know what people would think if they couldn’t view the situation through rose-colored-Harbaugh lenses.  Do their minds change if he isn’t an option, and if so, to what degree do they change?

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I wasn’t going to write specifically about this because I’m so helplessly in the dark on the issue that I’ll probably just make myself look foolish.  Since it seems to be the only topic on the minds of Wolverine fans, however, I figured what the hell.

Suprisingly, the tangled web we weave line isn't originally from Spider Man.

I haven’t thought out all the possibilities, but I’m going to list a few that seem plausible.  I’m sure the truth will end up being something I never even considered, but since there is still a month before the actual announcement we might as well make baseless assumptions on what the options are.

Here’s one dumbass’s opinion on the current dilemmas/decisions Michigan athletic director Dave Brandon may be facing.  Consider them “possible causes” for why what is, is:

Possibility #1: Dave Brandon publicly said he wouldn’t say anything about the coach until after the postseason.  Due to this, he has to stick to his guns or else he believes his pride and credibility will be wounded.  He may or may not have his mind already made up, but his hands are tied.

Possibility #2: Dave Brandon knows his decision, it is to bring in Harbaugh.  Harbaugh has already agreed to come, but doesn’t want any information leaked before he finishes at Stanford.

Possibility #3: Dave Brandon knows his decision, it is to bring in Harbaugh.  Harbaugh has asked to think about it, so Brandon is keeping his lips sealed so that he can have his cake and eat it too if Harbaugh ultimately declines.

Possibility #4: Dave Brandon knows his decision, it is to bring in Harbaugh, but Harbaugh has declined.  At this point Brandon is either moving to any of the “keep Rodriguez” scenarios or he is searching for other strong candidates.

Possibility #5: Dave Brandon knows his decision, it is to keep Rodriguez, but because of his public declaration of “Michigan as a business” he is sticking to his timeline regardless of media pressure.

Possibility #6: Dave Brandon knows his decision, it is to keep Rodriguez, but he wants people to believe it was a long, arduous process so as to make the fans who want Rodriguez gone believe it was a very tough decision.  This one works vice versa as well.

Possibility #7: Dave Brandon tentatively knows his decision, it is to keep Rodriguez.  Right now, however, discussions are being held to figure out the defense.  If these discussions go well and solutions are found, Rodriguez stays.  If not, Brandon leaves the door open to change his mind.

Possibility #8: Dave Brandon does not know his decision and is waiting for the bowl game to see if the team shows progress.

Possibility #9: Dave Brandon does not know his decision, and is currently gathering information and trying to make it.

Possibility #10: Dave Brandon does not know his decision, and he is going to completely make up his mind during the post-bowl evaluation period.

***
To be honest, if I was just guessing at this exact moment (my feelings change every day), I think there is slightly more reason to believe Rodriguez is on the way out as opposed to staying.  Unless Dave Brandon is just throwing the fact that he “does things the way he’s always done them” into the face of the media, I see no reason for him to not endorse Rodriguez at this time other than he doesn’t want him back.  He’s letting him finish the year that “he and the players have earned the right to finish” and then he is going to make the change.

If what I said is true – always a longshot, I know – then the only problem I see is the bowl game.  What if Michigan gets an emotional win in outstanding fashion that takes the fan base to a high level?  For all the excitement and expectations that such a win would conjure up, it would seem very odd to come out and fire the coach the next day.

If an emotional win like the one over Illinois occurs in the bowl game, will Dave Brandon's decision be complicated?

At the same time, if one bowl game is capable of altering his decision, that seems counterproductive as well.  By waiting, the only way his announcement won’t seem awkward is if Michigan loses badly and then Brandon cans Rodriguez.  If they win and he keeps him, people will say he should have announced sooner and/or should not have made the decision based just on the bowl game.  If they lose and he keeps him, people will say he should have announced sooner and wonder what was so important about seeing the end of the season since the bowl outcome didn’t matter.  If they win and he fires him, people will be even more upset because they’ll say that the bowl not only didn’t matter in terms of the decision, but also wasted one month with a lame duck coach.

Dave Brandon is a smart man.  He also seems like a good man.  Because of this, I think the awkwardness of this situation demonstrates that his hands are currently tied somewhat.  He knows everything that is happening better than anyone, so he isn’t just making nonsensical decisions for no reason at all.  It’s this concept that makes me think that the the goodness of Dave Brandon’s heart wants to give Rodriguez and his team the rest of the season, and the smartness of Dave Brandon wants to avoid a crazy coaching change firestorm.  But in order to do that, he has to make seemingly strange decisions for one specific reason:  His future coaching candidate has stated that he will only come if he is allowed to finish his current tenure.

That sounds like Jim Harbaugh.

Either way there are going to be some negative feelings.  The whole Dee Hart decommitment – though the anger about it will be exaggerated and based on incomplete information – has some people unsettled.  Brandon knows this and – assuming this coaching circus is the reason Hart decided to take his talents elsewhere – he knew that such a thing was a possibility if he pursued his course of choice.  That’s what makes me think there are other factors at play.

Still, Brandon marches to the beat of his own drum.  He constantly calls all the conjecture of the media “rubbish” so it wouldn’t completely surprise me if he just made his decision after the bowl game and left it at “Hey, I told you it would be the end of the season, it happened at the end of the season, and the intangibles are University business and no one else’s.”  If that ends up being the case, absolutely anything could still happen.

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No, I haven’t gone off the deep end yet.

I did watch the entire Ohio State game in the name of principle.  It was awful, mind you, but I couldn’t bring myself to turn off the greatest rivalry in all of sports.

Not a fun game to watch, but I just had to.

As far as the actual game goes, I won’t say much.  Detractors will view it as another example of Michigan failing on a big stage.  They will say we played bad entirely, and cite specific instances throughout the game as irrefutable evidence toward the case of Rich Rodriguez being let go immediately.

That’s fine.  Even though they will never admit it, those who classify the loss to Ohio State in such a black and white way are, at the very least, exaggerating.  You can see a 37-7 loss and say it was bad throughout, but I can just as easily see it and say we had multiple “close but not quite” moments.

And that’s an important distinction.  We constantly moved the ball throughout the game…but didn’t finish.  We consistently showed improvement on defense…but also gave them incredible field position.  We had guys open…but didn’t catch the ball.  To be honest, from the 20 to 20 yard lines we were pretty good.  But we didn’t let our momentum carry us to completion.

It’s the story of our season.  We had the talent to win more games than we did, but foolish mistakes kept us from capitalizing.  And even though I know this will piss some people off, I’m going to say it anyways:  That’s the way a sophomore dominated team ALWAYS is.  They do things that give you hope, they do things that take your expectations to “higher-than-they-should-be” levels, but at the end of the day, the little mistakes they make prevent them from being great.

You can’t get around it.  You can blame whatever or whoever you want, but you cannot get around the youth of this team.  The 2010 Michigan football team acted out the “young-team-that-is-still-learning” script to a T.  We lost to Wisconsin by 20 at home.  We lost to Ohio State by 30 on the road.  That was the 10 point difference in those games.  And given the current national rankings of those two teams, and the youth of our roster, I can’t say those outcomes sound all that outrageous to me.  Wisconsin and Ohio State were easily the two best teams in the Big Ten.  We were not.  They were easily two of the most experienced teams.  We were not.  That “age relationship to success” concept is a matter of causation.  Not correlation.

And now, everyone is rarin’ to go with their opinion on Rich Rodriguez.  Fortunately for me, I have a year’s worth of blog posts that can fill you in on mine if you’d really like to know.  Since you are unlikely to go back and read everything, however, I’ll try to stick to one point that I think is extra important right now and during the next month.

Rich Rodriguez: The talk of the town

I’ll just say it:  If Rich Rodriguez is fired now, we didn’t give him enough time to accurately judge what he is capable of as a coach.  You can make trivial little arguments about how incredibly long three years is, but all those arguments cannot make up for the fact that we have yet to see what HIS players WITH experience can do.  You and I may disagree about a lot of things, and you may be right about a lot of them, but if you think that Rich Rodriguez has coached HIS players WITH experience you are wrong.  Period.

Now, that sounds harsh but it isn’t meant to.  Just because he hasn’t coached his guys with experience doesn’t mean that he absolutely cannot or should not be fired.  There are lots of situations where firing a coach after three years is acceptable.  What I am suggesting – obviously – is that this is not one of them.

The first thing to understand is that there is MASSIVE disagreement in the Michigan fan base as to whether Rodriguez should be let go.  There is MASSIVE disagreement in the national media as to whether he should be let go.  There is MASSIVE disagreement in the Michigan blogosphere as to whether he should be let go.  Anyone who has an opinion feels strong about it, which is normal.  What is not as normal, is that people are disagreeing completely on an issue that, theoretically, they should be assessing using the same evidence.

So let’s look at this more closely.  Knowing that such a situation can exist where person A looks at evidence and comes to conclusion A while person B looks at the same evidence and comes to conclusion B, how can we rectify the disagreement?  The answer is, we can’t…at least not with facts.  See, you can bring a million arguments to the table and I can bring a million counter arguments to the table, but for each and every one of them there is a “point of view” or a “lack of information” that prevents us from reaching common ground.  We can argue until we are blue in the face, we’ll get nowhere.

Mad guys arguing. Apparently because they share the same finger...

This is why so many people are jumping on the: “Shut up and wait for David Brandon to decide” bandwagon.  This is fine.  I agree that the articles being written about the subject have no bearing on what happens.  But at this stage in the process, there is still an idea unrelated to such arguments that is worth mentioning.

Since all the facts for and against will get us nowhere, we have to  remember the question I asked earlier:  How do we rectify a disagreement between two people viewing the same information.  And now, the second piece:  What does such a disagreement tell us?

And this is an ever so important piece.  You see, the fact that there is such disagreement on whether Michigan should let Rich Rodriguez go or not means something.  It means we have incomplete information.  Stated another way, it means we’re missing a variable.  In this specific case, that variable is time.

If Michigan kept Rich Rodriguez as coach for the next ten years and Michigan continued to finish in the middle of the Big Ten for all those years, how much disagreement would there be amongst everyone about Rich Rodriguez?  Almost none.  Why?  Because time will force all disagreement away.

This isn’t some great truth.  You know this.  But the fact that there isn’t just some disagreement about Rich Rodriguez, but a whole lot, makes it seem glaringly obvious to me that not enough time has passed.  We disagree because we are making a decision based on too small of a sample size.  I might be right, or you might be right, but unless we increase the information we will never know.

And the idea of never knowing is important too.  If Rich Rodriguez gets let go before next season, he did not – I repeat – did not fail at Michigan (Again, goes back to the never having HIS guys WITH experience concept).  Instead, he was a sacrificial lamb.  He was the fall guy for the transition.  You can hate him and say whatever you want about him, but if he doesn’t get next year that is what he was.  He was the schmuck who was brought in to bear the ‘unpleasant’ part of the burden so that some other guy could come in on a white horse afterwards.  That way the fans who were going to be mad either way about the inevitable transition stage are placated, and now we’re ready for success in year four, when all of Rich Rod’s players will actually have some experience.

Current Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh

Now this might sound like I’m trying to weasel my way out of something, but consider this:  I absolutely do not want the “Rich-Rodriguez-as-fall-guy” excuse to even be a possibility.  You might think, “Oh here we go.  So that’s the route you’re little web site is going to take if he gets fired, eh?  The old, he didn’t fail, he never got a chance argument…”  But you’re wrong.  I’ve defended Coach Rod because I believe in him, but I desperately want to see if my belief was well placed.  I would rather see my belief shot to shit than have him fired after this season because I know if that happens then he was never given the full opportunity.  If he is fired after this season, we didn’t give him a fair shake.  I’m not talking financially, we gave him plenty of money.  I don’t care about that.  I’m talking logistically.  We never allowed him to fully do the exact thing we brought him here to do:  Completely reshape a program in his image.

And that’s what will be the worst part of his firing if it happens.  I believe Rich Rodriguez is a great football mind and will be successful, but losing him as a coach is not the thing I fear most.  I understand that a guy like Harbaugh can be successful at Michigan too, so it’s not like I fear for the program’s welfare in that sense.  What I do fear, is not seeing what our investment would look like if we allowed it to mature.  I don’t want the Rich Rodriguez era to be defined by “what if”.  I want to give the man who has increased his win total by two every year he has been here the year that would finally allow him to field a team of HIS players WITH experience.

And no, this isn’t some, fear-based, we’ve got him so we might as well keep him for one more year just in case argument.  I’ve already said my reasons we should keep him.  They’re all over the site.  But more importantly than any of those reasons, are the ideas of fairness and responsibility.  If you are going to bring in a guy and tell him to completely reshape a program that has been the same for over a century, you have to at least give him enough time to have – and I hesitate to say it again – HIS guys WITH experience.  Only then will all excuses, what ifs, and disagreements be vanquished.

Year four is the year of reckoning.  I’ve said that from the absolute beginning.  If it never happens, the case of Rich Rodriguez as Michigan’s coach will go unsolved.

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So it begins.  The rumors have started to fly.  It may sound strange, but this week in the media literally makes me feel ill.  It’s clear now that certain fans are never going to be happy unless we win every game, even when we are obviously facing more complete teams.  So instead of accepting what this team is and enjoying their progression of wins, these folks will throw a blame tirade and make shallow arguments as to why “everything” bad that has come to pass is Rich Rodriguez’s fault.

From this point forward, I’m not even going to pay attention to message boards or newspaper articles.  That’s unfortunate, because reading what fans think is usually one of my favorite things, especially during Ohio State week.  I should be basking in the excitement that is Wolverine nation as it prepares for the greatest rivalry in all of sports.  But I can’t, because a large portion of that nation is more concerned with getting a man fired than they are supporting their team. 

Michigan has very little chance of beating Ohio State.  The prior statement is true, and the reason it is true has nothing to do with any one individual.  If people would step back and try to see the totality of everything that has transpired since 2007 they would understand that blaming one individual is absurd.  Almost as absurd as the idea that bringing in one new individual could be more beneficial to the program than a program-wide consistency would be.

Oh well.  It is what it is.  At the very least it completely affirms the idea that there are Michigan fans, and there are fans of winning.  I used to think that the percentages of each was around 90-10, in favor of the true fans.  With the stuff I’ve read from people who actually would prefer we get blown out on Saturday in hopes it leads to Rodriguez’s firing, I now know it is more like 50-50.

I just wish people could see that there is no quick fix.  I wish they understood that the only way the formative years of 2008-2010 are in total vain is if we recklessly abandon the course.  I wish they realized that whatever strengths a new coach might bring to the table would pale compared to the weaknesses another transition would give rise to. 

It’s not, “I’m right so I know these statements are true.”  It’s “Look at what’s happened and I think you’ll see that they are.”  I mean it.  Seriously look.  Read why the team has so much youth on defense.  Read about the true severity of our “violations”.  Do some research on whether or not the 3-3-5 has ever been successful under different circumstances.  Compare whether or not teams with youth like ours are historically successful, and then see how they do as juniors and seniors.  It is easy to reduce everything to one thing and make a decision.  By searching for the truth, you may find things you don’t like, but those findings will allow you to better support the future of the program. 

To say that Michigan’s game against Ohio State is the determining factor in whether Rich Rodriguez comes back is the stupidest thing I’ve heard Michigan fans say in my entire life.  That isn’t hyperbole.  It isn’t for effect.  It’s literally the stupidest concept I’ve heard.  Ohio State is a much more complete team than we are this year.  Look at the records, look at the teams they’ve beat.  We aren’t there yet.  If we pull a major upset, great.  If we lose by one, it will suck.  If we lose by 30, it will suck more.  But implying, after everything that has happened, that it all comes down to this, is complete nonsense. 

Yet that’s exactly what people are doing.  If we pull a monumental upset on Saturday, the majority of detractors will change their tunes.  All of a sudden, everything will be okay again.  And while you’d think this would make me happy, you’d be so wrong.  In fact, it is this very mindset, above all others, that I am trying to fight against.  It’s such an instant gratification driven thought process.  This “magic-OSU-win” idea is the exact problem of the Michigan fan base defined in a microcosm.  You can’t give one thing (a win on Saturday) the ability to change everything.  If you do, your original position is proven so helplessly short sighted that you have demonstrated you have no right to an opinion on the matter, period. 

Look at everything – and I mean really look – then decide.  I can’t say you’ll agree with me after you do that, but I know damn well that you won’t be saying things like “If we beat the Buckeyes then everything is fine.”  And if were to win, people will say that!  I know they will!  The feeling of the fan base would do a complete 180, and such a swing is so short sighted that it would drive me crazy.  It’s like a kid choosing a popsicle over a trip to Disney World because he can have the popsicle right this instant. 

To hell with the signature win argument.  A colossal upset is not a signature win.  It never is.  Signature wins are games that directly affect championships.  We’ve never played in such a game under Rich Rodriguez because we’ve never seen his team playing with experience.  Never.  We’ve seen him coach experienced guys who weren’t his.  We’ve seen him coach inexperienced guys who are his.  And I’m going to beat that drum until the ship sinks because it is so vital to the understanding of what is truly happening at Michigan.

I won’t be able to enjoy reading about the Michigan-Ohio State game this week.  I won’t be able to read what fans are saying about its excitement.  Not because I don’t care, but because too many “cause-pushers” are trying to make this week about the firing of a coach, instead of the playing of a hallowed game. 

And still, I cannot wait for Saturday.

I will cherish this game.  I will prepare myself for it.  I will anticipate it with bated breath.  And even if it plays out the way almost everyone is predicting it to, I’ll still love my team.  I’ll still understand the vastness of why what is, is.  And most importantly, I’ll still have my dignity knowing that I never once based my feelings toward the outcome of this game, THE GAME, on whether winning or losing might help further some cause.

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Let me begin by saying that Mr. Pryor makes me laugh.  Not in an “Oh man, what a funny joke” kind of way.  It’s more of a “Dear Lord, you’ve got to be kidding me” thing.  Of course, I also consider him a despised enemy of Michigan athletics, so I alternate between shaking my fist at his play and my head at his antics.

The infamous Mike Vick interview...everyone does everything

It’s just, well…I guess the word is entitlement.  But before we get to that, let’s start with what is.  Terrelle Pryor is a freak athlete.  He is the most complete physical specimen in the Big Ten.  Michigan fans will crucify me for saying that because we all love Denard, but don’t misinterpret what was said.  I didn’t say he was the best player, I didn’t say he was the best Quarterback, and I didn’t say he was even the most athletic runner.  I said he is the most complete physical specimen.  I stand by that statement.

Problem is, because of his physical giftedness, Terrelle became accustomed to utterly dominating any athletic endeavor he undertook during his formative years.  He developed this sort of mega-ego that is so entrenched into his being that he now views the world through a very specific lens.  Put into words, it’s the “I’m-better–than-everyone-in-the-world-at-what-I-do” lens.  And while I can’t totally blame him for being this way – I mean, it would be hard not to be arrogant if you excelled to the degree he did in high school – it’s still annoying.  Primarily because, at least in terms of college football, his lens isn’t justified.

Terrelle Pryor has had success at Ohio State.  Angry Michigan fans can try to debate that but it’s a futile argument.  He’s won big ten titles, he’s won bowl games, he’s had big days statistically, blah, blah, blah.  No one can deny it.  What we can and should deny, however, is the idea that he has lived up to what was expected of him and/or what he thinks of himself.

You see, Ohio State has laundry lists of quarterbacks who have done everything Terrelle Pryor has done.  Even more telling, they have lists of quarterbacks who have done more.  Craig Krenzel won a terrible-pass-interference-call-aided-illegitmiate national championship.  Troy Smith, who played for OSU within the last five years, won the Heisman trophy.  Even guys like Joe Germaine and Bobby Hoying had comparable seasons in terms of wins and losses.

Joe Germaine went 11-1 and won a BCS bowl in 1998. His hype never reached Pyrorian levels.

And this is why Pryor’s sense of entitlement irks people.  It’s not that he thinks he is good.  He is good.  It’s that he thinks he has done something to be considered far better than he truly is.  He hasn’t won a national title.  He hasn’t won a Heisman trophy.  Hell, he hasn’t even won a big ten offensive player of the year award.  But by the way he condescendingly dismisses legitimate criticism, acts as if every mistake he makes is someone else’s fault, and whines when OSU decides to punt on 4th and 2, you would assume he’d done all those things.

I mean, a guy who acts like this must have a resume to back up such an arrogance right?  You would think, but everyone outside of Ohio understands that the answer to that question is no.  Again, he certainly has a resume, but it neither justifies his “I’m the shit” behavior or lives up to the outlandish hype that surrounded his recruitment.  And that, is why so many people are immediately turned off by a guy who is otherwise an outstanding athlete.

Let’s face it.  Troy Smith lit our ass up.  Many times.  And while I’m certain that we all despise him as a Buckeye, I would submit that we don’t dislike him for the same reasons we dislike Pryor.  We despise Smith because he did own the Big Ten.  We despise Pryor because because he acts like he owns it.  Even worse, he acts like he owns it more than anyone else ever has.  After Wisconsin convincingly beat Ohio State this year, all Pryor had to say was that they “still weren’t a better team” than the Buckeyes.  In other words, “I still own the Big Ten.”  You’re kidding, right?

All this said, I’m not too proud to admit I am afraid of Terrelle Pryor this week.  I am all for the idea that he has not consistently dominated at the highest level, but I also understand that he won’t have to do that on Saturday.  Michigan’s defense is not the highest level.  And when I look at his strengths, compared to our weaknesses, I get a little nervous twitch.  Not because I think he’ll have success against us, but because I know how miserable it will be if I have to see him have it.

I can already imagine what the announcers will be saying if he does what  just about every quarterback we’ve faced this year has done and has a big day.  “Terrelle Pryor, he has really perfected his game.”  “Terrelle Pryor, worked so hard to master the passing attack.”  “Terrelle Pryor, really the full package now.”  No one will mention the youth of our defense or the role our ineptitude is having in his success.  They’ll just talk about how great Terrelle Pryor is.  And I’ll be ripping my hair out every time they say it.

Last season Pryor had 74 yards rushing against Michigan

Ugh.  How annoying.  Maybe I’m wrong.  Maybe Michigan will shock the world and hold Pryor down.  The fan in me wants to believe it’s possible, but the realist in me says no way.  And while a lot of Michigan bloggers will focus on his throws against our secondary or his “gliding speed” while scrambling, the thing that worries me most is his size.  He’s 6-6, 245, and has a lethal stiff arm.

I’ve watched a lot of Ohio State this year, and as hard as it is for me to admit this, Terrelle Pryor is like a runaway stallion when he gets loose.  Analysts act like he’s so fast that he just never gets caught, but that isn’t it.  He gets caught.  The problem is that the guys who can catch him are five inches shorter and 50 pounds lighter than him.  When they try to hit him low he forces them down with his guard arm, and when they try to hit him high he simply overpowers the smaller players.   A big, experienced defense can somewhat counter this.  Man I wish we had a big, experienced defense.

Don’t get me wrong.  I don’t think Ohio State’s just going to run him all day.  Pryor is perhaps the most underused sports resource of all time in that respect.  They’ll continue to let him sit in the pocket and pass so he can try to “showcase” his “NFL” skills.  But what worries me are those dreaded 3rd down conversions he’ll likely get when he does decide to tuck and go.  For a team that already has massive issues getting off the field on 3rd down, a quarterback like Terrelle Pryor is just what the doctor did not order.  It isn’t unrealistic to assume we will only get a handful of third down stops in any given game.  If Pryor’s running cuts into that already small number, I fear the worst.

The solution I suppose – and it sounds oh so simple – is to constantly force him toward help.  When a smaller defensive player is running parallel to Pryor with space in between them, he is almost untackleable.  That’s an overstatement, of course, but I’ve seen many a corner fall to his stiff arm.  So when this situation arises, instead of just deciding which angle is best to attempt a tackle, defenders need to be thinking about which angle is best to bottle Pryor up.  Sure, it might be possible to go right at him and take him down, but if this is attempted without considering where the help is, any mistake could be catastrophic.

Basic concepts, I know.  But with a runner like Pryor, they’re worth reiterating.  If he has a good day, he has a good day, but I don’t want this to turn into a situation where he can run for eight yards any time he wants.  We have no chance of winning the game if that happens.  I’m sure better football minds than mine have come up with more complex schemes to contain him anyways.   But for some reason, I have an ominous feeling about his scrambling this Saturday.

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(Note:  Before I recap, it is important I thank our seniors.  Many of my articles deal with the future because I am trying to step back and view how this entire process will play out, but in doing so I do not want to diminish our current leaders in any way.  It is men like our seniors that give me great faith in the direction our program is heading.  They fully stayed the course through difficult times, which is a trait I long for our fan base to have.  Michigan as a program will see results because of these seniors’ hard work, and it is important that they know that those results belong to them as much as anyone, regardless of when they come.)

Well, the total dominance of Wisconsin’s run game was a little more than I expected it would be.  Other than that, the game played out almost exactly as the script said it would.

Montee Ball had gaping holes to run through all day.

This was a prime example of physical dominance.  The Badgers senior heavy line was way too much for Michigan.  They ate us up all day and it led to huge holes for their running backs to shoot through.  It doesn’t matter if your offense can score if it never sees the field.  In the first half, we rarely did.  Couple all this with the errors we made, and the score looks about right.

Make no mistake, this Badger team is one of the top five teams in the country.  They let down against MSU on the road and lost an ugly one.  Other than that, they’ve physically manhandled everyone they’ve played.  They would compete with any national championship contender.

But as Bob Griese stated many times throughout the game, this is it for Wisconsin.  They’re all in for this particular season.  Following 2010, their QB is gone, the majority of their offensive line is gone, their best pass catcher is gone.  They’re really the exact opposite of us.  Virtually everyone who has been significant on their offense is leaving after this year.  Virtually everyone who who has been significant on ours will be back.

And that list can go on in the Big Ten, both offensively and defensively.

We can start with Iowa.  The vast majority of their defense is gone.  Almost their entire D-line and all linebackers of merit, out.  Their quarterback, gone.  Their most productive receiver, gone.

The Buckeyes?  They lose seven starters on defense.  More importantly, every defensive player of true relevance that they have is included in that seven.

What about Michigan State?  Well, for one, they lose the majority of their offensive line.  Sure, they’ll still be young on offense in terms of position players, but that shouldn’t worry us because that is our greatest strength.  Against a common defense, I would take our returning position players over theirs every time.  In terms of defense, the only feared position group on the Spartans’ team is linebacker.  And, big shocker, every linebacker who matters on that team isn’t returning.

People need to accept that with a young defense like ours, experienced teams like Iowa, Ohio State, and Wisconsin are better than us.   And in the case of Wisconsin, yes, they are better by 20 points.  It’s like a JV football team playing a Varsity team.  Send a bunch of freshman and sophomores out against juniors and seniors in high school, you know what will happen.  The rule still applies in college.

And this is why next season is so crucial.  Not the year after, not 2013, just ONE MORE YEAR.  The wait is almost over.  It’s the year I’ve pointed to from the very beginning, and it is all I’m asking for.  The Big Ten changes drastically next year.  The teams with experience will become those without.  The teams without, will become those with.  To make any major change to this team before we see how such a scenario will play out would be irresponsible.

We took our beatings in 2008 as a team shell shocked by transition.  In 2009 and 2010, we took them as a team of categorical youth.  Now, at this ever so important moment, why would we even consider risking the first season in which we will actually have continuity and experience on the field?

Denard Robinson. Still less than a full year of starts under his belt.

The time to reap the reward for our three rebuilding years is almost at hand.  We wanted it to be this year in an overwhelming way, but it wasn’t.  When you think about it, how could it have been?  After everything that transpired in terms of injuries, transfers, and youth participation, how on earth could it have been?  Next season will be the first time we can realistically expect to reap the rewards that veteran teams in a consistent system reap.

A major transition in scheme (2008), plus an overwhelming confluence of youth(2009 + 2010), leads to a long term struggle (3 years).  Every time.  Everywhere.  The only thing that can comfort us through the hard times is the knowledge that the experience the young players are getting now, combined with offseason growth and training, will transform them into veterans.  More importantly, veterans in a conference growing younger by the day.

Don’t misread.  Nothing is guaranteed about how our opponents will deal with replacing important players and our issues are not 100% youth.  Being one year older is not some magic fix-all.  But I do believe the egregiousness of our mistakes is directly attributable to the fact that we’re young.  Every relevant team in the Big Ten is going to trade experience for inexperience next year.  For the first time ever under current staff, we will do the opposite.

One more round before you throw in the towel.  We’re getting stronger as the fight goes on.

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Two games left.  For better or worse, we saved the toughest tests for last.

Wisconsin and Ohio State. Currently the best the Big Ten has to offer.

I don’t have any groundbreaking information as to how we beat these teams.  As we’ve been saying all year, it’s purely a matter of putting together a complete game on both sides of the ball.  You can beat teams like Illinois and Purdue making mistakes, but not these two.  You have to play a legitimately complete game to beat legitimately complete teams.

I will say one thing, just in case anyone is thinking otherwise.  If John Clay ends up missing this game it means virtually nothing.  His backups are more than capable, and as much as people try to talk up Clay, it truly is his offensive line that makes him a star. I don’t mean any of this as a slight, but the drop off from him as a first string back to Montee Ball or James White coming off the bench is almost non-existent.  Both of them are faster than Clay, and both of them currently have a higher yards per carry average than him.  Whoever Wisconsin throws at us is going to be a pain to stop.

Anyways, here are some common opponent stats.  I know I always say they’re useless and then still post them.  It’s not because I’m a lunatic.  It’s just that there aren’t any superb ways to predict the outcome of a football game, and comparing statistics seems logical, even if the conclusions we draw from often prove irrelevant.  Ah well.

Common Opponent Results

Wisconsin

Michigan

A few things worth noting:

• Wisconsin has not been a stone cold run stopper against Big Ten teams.  Against conference opponents not named Minnesota, the Badgers are giving up 160.8 yards per game on the ground.  This is significantly higher than the 125 they are giving up when viewed through the lens of their entire schedule.  By comparison, Michigan is giving up 186.8 against Big Ten opponents, and that includes the additional defense they played in the triple overtime win against the Illini.
• Upper tier Big Ten teams have shown the ability to pass against Wisconsin successfully.  The top three big ten teams have averaged 225.6 yards passing a game.
• In these games and overall, Wisconsin has done well in the area of turnover margin.  They currently rank 17th in the country in that category.  Michigan, by comparison, ranks 102.
• As everyone knows, Wisconsin would much prefer to run the ball.  Their passing game has been strong enough to get wins, and will likely be strong enough to move the ball against Michigan’s young secondary, but has been found lacking in games where they trailed, especially against MSU.
• From a yardage standpoint, Michigan has been more successful overall and in the running game than Wisconsin has.  Michigan currently has 2663 yards rushing and 5218 yards overall.  Wisconsin has 2282 yards rushing and 4285 yards overall.  The dynamics of how a particular game plays out have something to do with this.  More importantly than that, however, is how well this yardage translates to points.  Wisconsin averages 40.2 points a game, whereas Michigan averages 37.7.  We may move the ball better, but our movement doesn’t lead to points as often as Wisconsin’s does, largely because of our own mistakes/poor kicking game.
• Statistically, Michigan’s performance against Iowa is nearly identical or better than Wisconsin’s in every area except turnover margin.  Wisconsin won by a point, Michigan lost by ten.  This demonstrates that excluding turnovers, Michigan played well enough to win that game, something we were already aware of.

*****
The issue with all the arguments that try to paint Wisconsin as a very strong run team but a not so strong pass team is that Michigan’s great weakness is against the pass.  So even if we were to somewhat corral the strength of this Wisconsin team – a tall order in itself – we cannot expect their passing numbers to remain similar to those they had against defenses like Michigan State or Ohio State.

Nick Toon had 98 yards and caught two of Wisconsin's four passing touchdowns in last year's game.

And that’s the real issue in this game.  A guy like Nick Toon may not be lighting up the Big Ten this year, but he did light us up last year.  It’s sort of like the Tandon Doss effect.  Doss only had 12 and 2 yards respectively against Ohio State and Wisconsin this year, but he had 221 against us.  If we could expect to hold guys like him or Toon down the way other big ten teams do, then this whole prediction business would be much simpler.  Since we have consistently failed to do that, however, it is difficult to make “common opponent” comparisons.

Even if Wisconsin runs the ball very well Saturday, Michigan still has a chance…as long as we don’t turn the Badgers passing game into a strength as well.  The higher degree to which we have to respect the play action pass, the less chance we have of winning.  For this reason, I could accept an offensive output like the one Wisconsin had against Purdue, simply because the majority of the damage happened in one area.  But if we make Nick Toon – a guy who has been largely irrelevant this year – look like we made Tandon Doss – another guy who has been largely irrelevant except against us – look, then we have almost zero chance of winning this game.

Everyone knows what Wisconsin’s strength is, and what they are going to try to do.  While “shutting down” the run is probably too much to ask of this young defense, containing the secondary aspects of their offense is our only hope.   If we’re going to win, we can’t let Wisconsin look overly strong in areas that they haven’t been historically.  That’s what we did last year, and that’s why we got blown out.

It’s as simple as this:  If we don’t make any big mistakes, we have a puncher’s chance at pulling the upset at home.  If we do make mistakes, we have almost no chance.  They’re too good of a team to be helped along.

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No one will ever know if ole Bret Bielema’s decisions in last week’s 83-20 victory were at all influenced by the BCS.  Even if they were, it doesn’t bother me that much.  We’re in a flawed system that can be manipulated by “impressing voters”, so if a team thinks there is even an outside chance at making it to the big one it doesn’t surprise or offend me if they try to go for it all.  It just shines more light on the farce that is the BCS.

Oh no they diin't!!!

At the same time, I do know a few things about that game.  One, Wisconsin did have its scrubs in.  It’s not like Tolzien was out there slingin’ it late in the fourth.  Two, they did not just run the ball.  This is the main reason the media is eating the story up.  And three, Indiana was totally deflated by the time Wisconsin got to 50, and therefore did, in many ways, give up.  End result?  83 big ones.

This information means very little concerning the Michigan game in my opinion.  Even if Wisconsin didn’t try to rub it in against Indiana, that doesn’t mean they won’t try to do so against Michigan.  That’s because it’s easy for everyone to feel bad for Indiana.  They’ve never been good at football, and running it up on them doesn’t look impressive.  For as many people who are “awed” by the number 83, there are just as many that are thinking, “What the hell man?  Why would you do that to a school whose most recognizable football player ever was basketball player Isiah Thomas?”  (I jest, I jest, he didn’t play.  Besides, we can’t forget this guy)

The same is not true about Michigan.  Michigan is an elite name, even when we aren’t an elite team.  Not only is Michigan a big name, they have also asserted an uncanny dominance over Wisconsin in the last 60 years.  Something like 49-11.  If you don’t think Wisconsin and its fans remember that, you’re out to lunch.  It is for these reasons that Michigan really needs to bring it this week.  Bielema may not have taken great joy from hammering Indiana, but he will from hammering Michigan.

I really don't want to see this "tool-guy" smile next week.

People hate Michigan fans.  They just do.  It’s because of us that everyone wants to destroy Michigan and then talk about it until the end of time.  They say we’re arrogant, and they are right.  The problem is, it’s not our fault that we are.  We were just so damn good for so damn long that what lesser teams saw as outstanding, we started to view as mediocre.  People don’t like that.  They don’t enjoy hearing us say things like “Losing to that team is absolutely unacceptable for our program.”  They want us to give our opponents credit.  They want us to view them as our equal.  When we don’t do that for so many years and are proven right in not doing it for so many years, people develop a complex.

And over the last few years, a few teams have had their chance to act on this complex.  They’ve got their kicks in.  But two or three wins is obviously not enough to make up for the decades we dominated them.  So they want more.  Not only in terms of consecutive wins, but in terms of how it’s done.  They want to humiliate us.  They want to “put us in our place”.  You can say that’s all in the past and you can say the current players and coaches don’t care, but I think they do.  They know we still think our program is superior to theirs, and it bothers the hell out of them.

This is why Michigan always, and I mean ALWAYS, gets every team’s best shot.  In our current situation it’s almost unfair, because it doesn’t give a developing team like ours any chance to have a down week.  When Michigan State plays Iowa, it’s just a big game for the Spartans.  When Michigan State plays Michigan, it’s as if the entire worth of their university and collective manhood is at stake.  It’s the same with teams like Purdue and Illinois as well.  They’ve hated hearing us talk so much for so long that regardless of their records, regardless of their skill, they’re bringing everything against the Wolverines.

And Wisconsin, even though they’ve seen recent success, still feels the same way.  They hate that all their supposed good teams of the late 90’s/early 2000’s NEVER beat Michigan.  They hate that their beloved Ron Dayne would run for 200 yards against every team in the Big Ten and then do virtually NOTHING against Michigan.  They hate that Barry Alvarez beat LLoyd Carr ONE time in his entire coaching career.  They hate Michigan to the very core, and they remember everything.

No one has more rushing yards in the history of college football than Ron Dayne. He never went over 100 against Michigan. Ever.

Bielema became Wisconsin’s head coach in 2006.  In that first season, Bret set records by leading the team Alvarez had composed to a 12-1 record in his first year.   12-1.  Hot dog!  Hey, who beat them?  Oh, Michigan.  By two touchdowns.  Still, 12-1 is 12-1.  What awesome bowl game did they end up going to?  The Rose?  No.  The Fiesta?  No.  Wait, the Citrus?  Oh.  That might gnaw at you.

I’m certainly not guaranteeing that Wisconsin will run up the score if they get the chance this week.  I’m also not trying to say that Bielema unquestionably has a vendetta against Michigan.  But I do think he understands that there are a lot of reasons for Wisconsin fans to dislike the Wolverines, and he wants to demonstrate that he is the guy who can put the Maize and Blue in its place.  Couple this with the fact that winning big could help their very slim chances of getting to the National Championship game, and it sounds like a recipe for wanting to run up the score to me.

Tread cautiously Michigan.  You not only need to bring you’re A-game in what you do, but also what you don’t do.  If you give this opponent an inch, they’re going to take a mile.

The good thing is, this is a big chance for Michigan to demonstrate progress.  Winning the game might be a long shot, but hanging with the eighth ranked scoring offense in the country who also has a top 25 defense, will be a step forward.

Limit mistakes.  Play your heart out.  Protect your turf.  Make Wisconsin worry about getting this win, not how many points they’re going to put up.

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There are many issues from the Purdue game that can and will be analyzed this week.  Obviously we made a lot of mistakes, didn’t look sharp, and need to correct a handful of problems if we’re going to have any chance against Wisconsin and Ohio State.  Everyone knows this and no one disagrees.

An all too easy survey

It seems the hip thing to do these days is look for the obvious cause of our problems and then casually disagree with it.  In this circumstance, the obvious cause was the weather.  So all the cool cat, coffee shop philosophers who have to play the part are going to go all anti-establishment and say things like, “Yes, the weather was an issue…but it wasn’t the only issue!”  Man…that’s deep.

But for the sake of going double anti-establishment on their asses, I’m going to go even deeper (and by ‘even deeper’ I mean ‘not deep at all’) and say “Yes, the weather was an issue…and it was the major issue.”  I truly believe the rain was the primary cause of the things we did excessively wrong on Saturday.  Sorry if that’s too simple for you.

Nevertheless, it is largely because of this belief that I’m not going to write the 5,000 words it would take to cover everything that we could improve upon from the Purdue game.  Instead, I’m going to discuss the one issue that has nagged us for the majority of the year, and is, in my opinion, the most important thing we need to fix to contend with Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Turnovers.

Normally, I mention the issue every week in a single paragraph.  Blah blah blah, don’t turn it over, blah blah blah.  I hope that my saying this somehow magically brings the issue even closer to the forefront of our players’ minds, and it will therefore be fixed.  This hope is absurd for a variety of reasons – mainly that players don’t even read this blog – but regardless of its stupidity, it is a hope gone unfulfilled.  To rectify this, I am dedicating an entire article to one, fan-driven plea:

Dear Michigan, please stop turning it over or you will lose to Ohio State and Wisconsin.  Thank you.

Perhaps the following statement is a bit extreme, but I believe the margin for error Michigan has in the next two games is zero.  Maybe not for things like dropped passes that lead to a 3rd and 8 instead of 4, but definitely for things like turnovers that can lead to points.  Wisconsin’s run game scares the death out of me, and Ohio State’s “everything” (at least at the shoe) scares the death out of me.

This is what death looked like when he was scared out of me

Say what you want about the Buckeyes offense, but Pryor is willing to go up top with the deep ball, and they have had some success on long pass plays.  I’m no fortune teller, but I have a feeling they are going to try to do that A LOT against Michigan.  Throw in the relative inexperience of our defense, and I foresee a lot of opportunities for both Ohio State and Wisconsin to score.

And that’s without our help.

Since the Michigan State game, we really have shot ourselves in the foot a lot.  Now I know people say we’re just making excuses and that we should give our opponents’ defenses more credit, but I really don’t believe the weight of self-infliction we give in our analysis is all that biased.  It would be one thing if corners were making incredible diving catches on balls that otherwise would have made it to a receiver, but that’s not what’s happening.  We’re either overthrowing, underthrowing, or who-the-hell-knows-where throwing and the defense is being given easy takeaways.  I’ve no doubt that the defenses are doing things to confuse our quarterbacks, but that doesn’t change the fact that the ball shouldn’t be thrown.  Take a sack.  Scramble.  Throw it out of bounds.  Just don’t giftwrap it for them.

Speaking of overthrows, this is something that I’m sure Denard is working on.  The problem is that he has such a strong arm, and is in such adrenaline pumping situations, that his body naturally produces stronger throws than necessary even though he thinks he’s giving it the right amount of power.  From my limited analysis, I have produced an awful MS-Paint diagram that explains everything perfectly:

A chart I made in MS Paint. An affront to all art, I know.

Okay, maybe not.  But you get the point.  Denard has pinpoint accuracy on some types of passes but sometimes gets into trouble throwing those downfield middle routes.  This isn’t to say he doesn’t have touch, because he certainly does. (See pass to Webb against Purdue).  It also isn’t to say these passes are easy, because they are probably the hardest one for a developing quarterback to master.  It’s just to say that there are certain situations in which an absolute perfect pass is required to accomplish what he wants, and in those situations it would be better to tuck it and go than risk what will ensue if he makes even the slightest mistake.

Fumbles are another issue.  Again, last week some of it was due to rain, but some of it is just a lack of wherewithal.  Players need to understand that when they start weaving across the field, defenders can be coming from anywhere, including behind them.  If tucking the ball away more thoroughly means they can’t make that extra move to get that extra few yards, so be it.  Against Wisky and the Bucks, a turnover will hurt us more than ten additional yards gained will help us.  We can’t help them, because we don’t want to get into a situation where we trail early.  These teams are designed to play with the lead.  If they’re going to get it, at least make them earn it.

Ultimately, I understand that we are not the favorites in these games.  I also understand that our young team beating two BCS bowl hopefuls is a long shot.  But if we do lose these games, I don’t want to be wondering “what if”.  I don’t want to be thinking about plays like the fumble in the end zone last year against the Buckeyes.  I want to see how our absolute best compares to the play of top ten ranked teams.

For that to happen, we MUST stop turning it over.  Whatever it takes.  Whatever it takes.

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Seven is seven.

It’s two more than last year, it’s a bowl game, it’s beating the teams we should reasonably be expected to beat save maybe one.

It’s improvement.  It’s measurable.  It’s undeniable.

It isn’t necessarily pretty.

Ugly wins > Pretty losses

I am amazed at how upset and/or perplexed people are when they see a young Michigan team win in a manner they consider unsatisfactory.  We have now seen consecutive games that were polar opposites of one another in just about every way.  One was a shootout, the other was a snail race.  One showed how far the offense had come, one showed how far it still needs to go.  One made us realize the worst fears about our defense, the other showed us its ultimate potential.  Differences everywhere, but both wins.

You’d think that would be enough.  I mean, when we lost these types of games everyone complained that it was all about the win.  “See, Rich Rod just isn’t a winner.  He doesn’t know how to get a team over the top.”  That’s what they said.  Now that the wins are there, the tune changes.  “We’re still turning it over.  Way too many mistakes.  Probably flukes.”  It never ends.

To those who have moved from the “I want wins” to the “I want style wins” camp, I ask you gently, to go away.  Not for my sake, not for Rich Rodriguez’s sake.  You should go away for the sake of the players.  Specifically the young ones.  The 18 and 19 year olds who are giving their best efforts, only to have them spit upon by a bunch of nostalgic perfectionists who completely overlook all the variables that are in play here.  You aren’t helping, and you don’t make sense.  Come back and root in three years.  We’ll call it a “bandwagon hiatus.”

Take your hiatus. We'll all feel better about things.

It isn’t that these people are too emotional.  I understand that.  If it was just a matter of them getting so caught up in the past that they overlooked all the issues that are understandably keeping us from the top of the big ten then I could handle it.  My problem is that their complaints don’t make any sense.

You see, progress happens over time.  It also happens gradually.  So when people declare the Illinois or Purdue wins as “still unacceptable”, they are arguing against the very nature of the beast.  You don’t go from a 3-9 team that loses all the close ones to a 9-3 team that wins them easily.  That just wouldn’t add up.  In fact, the only thing you can expect from a 3-9 team is the very thing we are seeing at Michigan.  Not that they will overcome everything in one swift blow, but that they will overcome the small things first, and then slowly move on to the bigger ones.

When Michigan went 3-9 in 2008, they basically lost to everyone.  Then, in 2009, they took a small step forward.  They eliminated losses to teams like Toledo, and they even stepped forward to beat a team like Notre Dame.  Now, in 2010, they’ve taken another step.  They beat two big ten teams that they didn’t beat in 2009, and they are going to a bowl game.  Small steps, every year.

Judging from some of the complaints I’ve seen, people not only expected Michigan to make such a movement forward, but they expected them to do so in a “pretty way.”  But in that expectation, these fans jumped over one of the steps in the process.  You don’t go from losing to a team to dominating a team.  You go from losing to a team, to doing whatever it takes to beat them.  It doesn’t matter whether it’s ugly or unexpected, all that matters during that second step is that you get there.  Then, once you have demonstrated you are capable of getting the win, you start to work on “perfecting” yourself, which ultimately results in “pretty” wins.

And that is what is so frustrating.  This team is following the “steps to improvement guidebook” to a T, and some fans are still acting like something is wrong.  They aren’t just missing a point, they’re missing the only point.  That is, THIS IS EXACTLY HOW A STRUGGLING TEAM TURNS INTO SOMETHING ELSE.  Like, couldn’t be more true to the formula.  They’re taking small steps, every year, and as they continue to do that, they will transform from a young, inexperienced team, to a capable, battle ready one.  This is how it happens.  There is no other way.

The  only thing off here is how certain fans undercut the idea of a process.  You can’t expect a team to go from a 1 to a 5 in one year.  First they have to hit 2,3, and 4.  It may not be the easiest road and it certainly makes 5 seem like it is far away at times, but it has to happen.  By diminishing the value of the intermediate stages of progression, fans not only sound foolish, but also do a  disservice to all the hard work the players are currently putting in.  Open your eyes!  Their work is being paid off in small amounts as we speak.  Don’t overlook their successes just because you aspire to have ‘everything’ now.

That annoying Willy Wonka girl. Yeah, I went there.

Personally, I am very excited for these players.  They are consistently doing good things that they failed to do last year.  That’s the definition of improvement in my book.  More importantly, that kind of improvement is all I can reasonably ask for as a fan.  We’re not going to win the national championship, we’re not going to win the Big Ten, but there are three games left for this team to grow and develop as a unit.

Whether we will win those games or lose them I can’t say.  At this point in the process, though, that isn’t the most relevant issue.  What matters is that we keep taking steps.  Not giant steps mind you, just steps.  Keep moving forward, and the ultimate goal constantly comes closer.  In the meantime, let’s just enjoy the trip.  It’s nice to see these guys go places they’ve never been.

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